Planetary Ruin

Billions of people could be wiped out over the next century because of climate change, a leading expert said.

Professor James Lovelock, who pioneered the idea of the Earth as a living organism, said as the planet heats up humans will find it increasingly hard to survive.

He warned that as conditions worsen, the global population which is currently around 6.5 billion, may sink as low as 500 million.

Prof Lovelock also claims that any attempts to tackle climate change will not be able to solve the problem, merely buy us time.

Given the dire situation we face, he urged people to drop the phrase “global warming,” which has cosy connotations, and instead start to think of it as “global heating.”

Prof Lovelock, is an independent scientist who first proposed the Gaia Theory, which argues that the Earth, like a body, is a complex and intricately balanced system which all works together to allow life to continue as we know it.

However he fears that as carbon dioxide emissions from man and the planet itself soar, the Earth will heat up causing water shortages, destroying life in much of the planet’s oceans and making it impossible for plants to grow.

Prof Lovelock, who last night gave the 5th John Collier Lecture to the Institution of Chemical Engineers in London, said: “There is very good evidence of what happened 55 million years ago when as much carbon dioxide was put into the atmosphere by geology as is being done by us now.

“Temperatures zoomed up by 8 degrees and stayed there for 200,000 years then came back to normal.”

He fears something similar may happen again, and warned: “if it does it is going to make this an exceedingly difficult century.”

However Prof Lovelock said mankind has managed to survive previous climatic disasters of the past.

“There have been at least seven of these major climate changes before and we have to adapt,” he said.

“It is going to be tough and there will be some evolution of humans during it.

“The survivors will be those humans that can make their way to refuges or Arctic places and survive there.

“I think an awful lot of people will die but I don’t see the human species dying out.

“I would think a hot earth could not support much over 500 million.”

He warned there are no simple solutions to global heating and there is nothing we can do now to “save the earth.”

“People will try to do things but the way to really look at them is they are a bit like when your kidneys fail you can on dialysis – and who would refuse dialysis if death is the alternative?” he said.

“But we have to remember that all they are doing is buying us time. The problems will go on.

“Trying to take the job on of regulating the earth is about as crazy as you can get.

“It is something quiet beyond humans at this stage in their evolution.”

Despite this people should do what they can to reduce their impact on the planet.

“There is no point driving around in a Chelsea tractor when you can drive a small car but it does not escape the fact that changes are underway,” he warned.

Prof Lovelock’s dire forecast for the future of the human race is far more pessimistic than the Government’s own assessment of global warming.

Tony Blair told European leaders at a summit in Finland last month that it was not too late to reverse the effects global warming.

In an open letter to delegates he said there was a window of “10-15 years to take the steps we need to avoid crossing catastrophic tipping points.”

This echoes the findings of Sir Nicholas Stern in his influential report on climate change.

In it he says there is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change if countries co-operate internationally.

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The global political battle over climate change was also being fought at the US Supreme Court on Wednesday as judges bickered over the role of greenhouse gas emissions in global warming and disagreed on whether the Env­­ir­on­mental Protection Agency had the power to refuse to regulate such emissions.

Hearing a case that could have a big impact on emission politics in the US Congress and beyond, judges listened to a Bush administration official defend the notion that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) should stay out of greenhouse gas regulation. They also heard from the state of Massachusetts, which insists that its coastline will be threatened unless the EPA steps in.

Environmental activists, frustrated by the failure of Congress or the Bush administration to act on global warming, brought the issue to the Supreme Court with the case Massachusetts v EPA. The court heard oral arguments in the case yesterday but will rule only sometime next year.

Massachusetts brought the suit, backed by California, New York and several other states, to try to force the EPA to regulate exhaust emissions from new cars. The EPA says it does not have the authority to regulate such emissions, under federal law. Even if it did, the EPA says, it would refuse to do so because of continuing uncertainty in the science of global warming and because unilateral US action could reduce America’s bargaining power in international negotiations on reducing emissions.

A federal appeals court issued a splintered ruling in the case, with the two judges in the majority – who upheld the EPA’s refusal to regulate – disagreeing on their reasoning. One found that Massachusetts had no right to bring the lawsuit, and the other found that the EPA had the authority to refuse to regulate.

Wednesday’s arguments focused largely on the issue of whether Massachusetts could bring the case in the first place, with several conservative justices arguing that Massachusetts had not proved the danger to its coastline was imminent enough to merit the suit, or that the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions that could be achieved by limiting exhaust emissions – some 2.5 per cent of total US greenhouse emissions – would be significant enough to give them the right to sue.

“It depends what happens across the globe,” Chief Justice John Roberts said, noting that any reduction in US emissions might be overcome by a rise in emissions caused by China’s rapid economic development. Several liberal justices supported Massachusetts but the pivotal swing justice, Anthony Kennedy, did not reveal where he stood.

The court appeared similarly divided on the issue of whether the EPA had the authority to refuse to regulate or whether its reasons for doing so were valid.

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The arctic deep freeze trapping Calgary is on track to break a 110-year-old weather record today, but the bitter cold is expected to ease in the coming days.

With a forecast low of -31C today, Calgary could break the -27C record set on this day in 1896.

But factoring in the wind chill, it will feel even colder to people who have to brave the elements, said Environment Canada meteorologist Ross Macdonald.

“I wouldn’t break out the shorts and go sunbathing right now,” he joked.

“Bundle up.”

The recent frigid weather is a far cry from the city’s average late-November temperatures.

Macdonald said the normal daytime high at this time of year is 0C, with a low of -11C.

“The last time it was really this cold in November was about 10 years ago,” he said.

“We’ve hit rock bottom.”

It’s even been too frosty to ski, with Canada Olympic Park shutting the hill yesterday in the name of safety.

Spokesman Chris Dornan said, to his knowledge, it’s the first year the weather has forced a November closure.

“It’s normally in January or February,” he said.

Meanwhile, blowing snow likely contributed to a crash near Sylvan Lake yesterday that claimed the life of a 42-year-old motorist.

And the icy snap has the Calgary Humane Society scrambling to respond to an avalanche of calls from residents concerned about distressed animals, said spokeswoman Cheryl Wallach.

“The Calgary Humane Society is calling on all Calgary pet owners to use common sense and not leave animals outside without adequate shelter,” she said.

The frigid weather is expected to improve by Thursday, with a predicted high of -7C.

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The earth has a fever that could boost temperatures by 8 degrees Celsius making large parts of the surface uninhabitable and threatening billions of peoples’ lives, a controversial climate scientist said on Tuesday.

James Lovelock, who angered climate scientists with his Gaia theory of a living planet and then alienated environmentalists by backing nuclear power, said a traumatized earth might only be able to support less than a tenth of it’s 6 billion people.

“We are not all doomed. An awful lot of people will die, but I don’t see the species dying out,” he told a news conference. “A hot earth couldn’t support much over 500 million.”

“Almost all of the systems that have been looked at are in positive feedback … and soon those effects will be larger than any of the effects of carbon dioxide emissions from industry and so on around the world,” he added.

Scientists say that global warming due to carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels for power and transport could boost average temperatures by up to 6C by the end of the century causing floods, famines and violent storms.

But they also say that tough action now to cut carbon emissions could stop atmospheric concentrations of CO2 hitting 450 parts per million — equivalent to a temperature rise of 2C from pre-industrial levels — and save the planet.

Lovelock said temperature rises of up to 8C were already built in and while efforts to curb it were morally commendable, they were wasted.

“It is a bit like if your kidneys fail you can go on dialysis — and who would refuse dialysis if death is the alternative. We should think of it in that context,” he said.

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Dutch bask in warmest autumn in three centuries

The autumn of 2006 has been the warmest in the Netherlands for over 300 years, 12.5 percent hotter than the previous year which was already a record, meteorologists said.
“Beating the record by more than one degree centigrade, that is exceptional,” the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute said in a statement.

The average temperature for the months leading up to November 17 was up to 13.5 degrees (56 degrees F), as compared to 12 degrees last year, which was already the hottest autumn on record.

The average over the last three centuries for this period of the year has been 9.9 degrees.

At least three factors are responsible for the increased temperatures, the Institute said: global warming, winds from the south that have blown over the Netherlands more than in most years, and a slower cooling down after an exceptionally hot summer, especially in July.

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