Planetary Ruin

The number of tropical storms developing annually in the Atlantic Ocean more than doubled over the past century, with the increase taking place in two jumps, researchers say.
The increases coincided with rising sea surface temperature, largely the byproduct of human-induced climate warming, researchers Greg J. Holland and Peter J. Webster concluded. Their findings were being published online Sunday by Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.

An official at the National Hurricane Center called the research “sloppy science” and said technological improvements in observing storms accounted for the increase.

From 1905 to 1930, the Atlantic-Gulf Coast area averaged six tropical cyclones per year, with four of those storms growing into become hurricanes.

The annual average jumped to 10 tropical storms and five hurricanes from 1931 to 1994. From 1995 to 2005, the average was 15 tropical storms and eight hurricanes annually.

Even in 2006, widely reported as a mild year, there were 10 tropical storms.

“We are currently in an upward swing in frequency of named storms and hurricanes that has not stabilized,” said Holland, director of mesoscale and microscale meteorology at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

“I really do not know how much further, if any, that it will go, but my sense is that we shall see a stabilization in frequencies for a while, followed by potentially another upward swing if global warming continues unabated,” Holland said.

It is normal for chaotic systems such as weather and climate to move in sharp steps rather than gradual trends, he said.

“What did surprise me when we first found it in 2005 was that the increases had developed for so long without us noticing it,” he said in an interview via e-mail.

Holland said about half the U.S. population and “a large slice” of business are “directly vulnerable” to hurricanes.

“Our urban and industrial planning and building codes are based on past history,” he said. If the future is different, “then we run the very real risk of these being found inadequate, as was so graphically displayed by (Hurricane) Katrina in New Orleans.”

Hurricanes derive their energy from warm ocean water. North Atlantic surface temperature increased about 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit during the 100-year period studied. Other researchers have calculated that at least two-thirds of that warming can be attributed to human and industrial activities.

Some experts have sought to blame changes in the sun. But a recent study by British and Swiss experts concluded that “over the past 20 years, all the trends in the sun that could have had an influence on the Earth’s climate have been in the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures.”

As the sea surface temperatures warm, they cause changes in atmospheric wind fields and circulations, and these changes are responsible for the changes in storm frequency, Holland said.

Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center, said the study is inconsistent in its use of data.

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The head of the Environmental Protection Agency says he will investigate a threatening letter sent by the leader of an EPA-member group, vowing to “destroy” the career of a climate skeptic.

During a Capitol Hill hearing yesterday, Sen. James M. Inhofe, Oklahoma Republican and ranking member of the Environment and Public Works Committee, confronted EPA Administrator Stephen L. Johnson about the strongly-worded letter written July 13 by Michael T. Eckhart, president of the American Council on Renewable Energy (ACORE) that was sent to Marlo Lewis, senior fellow of the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI).

“It is my intention to destroy your career as a liar,” Mr. Eckhart wrote. “If you produce one more editorial against climate change, I will launch a campaign against your professional integrity. I will call you a liar and charlatan to the Harvard community of which you and I are members. I will call you out as a man who has been bought by Corporate America. Go ahead, guy. Take me on.”

CEI does not dispute climate change, however it differs with certain environmental groups, including ACORE, on the causes. After Mr. Inhofe read Mr. Eckhart’s comments, which were first reported by Inside the Beltway two weeks ago, the EPA chief promised to probe the matter.

“Statements like this are of concern to me. I am a believer in cooperation and collaboration across all sectors,” Mr. Johnson assured. “This is an area I will look into for the record.”

When Mr. Johnson confirmed that EPA is a member of ACORE, Mr. Inhofe asked if “it is appropriate to be a part of an organization that is headed up by a person who makes this statement.”

Late yesterday, Mr. Inhofe announced he will send letters to the departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, and EPA, urging them to “reconsider their membership of ACORE.”

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Nevada is among the states with the most dramatic increase in average temperatures the last 30 years, according to a new study that examines the impact of global warming across the country.

The average temperature in Reno from June through August last year was 75.6 degrees, almost 7 degrees above the 30-year average, the U.S. Public Interest Research Group reported. The gap was the biggest measured nationally.

Las Vegas’ average temperature last summer was 3.6 degrees above the 30-year average from 1971-2000, while Elko’s was 4 degrees above normal and Ely’s was 2.1 degrees hotter, the report said.

“The scientific evidence of global warming is incontrovertible, and Nevada is feeling the heat more intensely than most of the rest of the U.S,” said Stephen M. Rowland, Professor of Geology at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

“Only a tiny bit of this increase in temperature can be attributed to increased urbanization the so-called urban heat-island effect,” Rowland continued. “Global warming is here, and we better get serious about confronting it.”

According to the National Climatic Data Center, the 2006 summer and 2006 overall were the second warmest on record for the lower 48 states. And 2007 is on track to be the second warmest year on record globally.

“Global warming is rewriting the record books in Nevada and across the country,” said Jill Bunting, a spokesperson for U.S. PIRG.

“Unless our elected officials act now to curb global warming pollution, Nevada will see more severe heat waves that increase the risk for wildfires, drought, and heat-related illnesses,” she said.

The new report found Reno’s average temperature from 2000 to 2006 was 3.4 degrees above the 30-year average, the second-highest reading in the nation for the period.

The environmental advocacy group analyzed temperature data collected from 255 weather stations across the country to examine warming temperatures during recent years compared with historical trends.

Nationally, the average temperature during the summer of 2006 was at least half a degree above the 30-year average at 82 percent of locations studied.

Reno experienced 74 days the temperature hit at least 90 degrees in 2006 — 21 more days than the historical average. The average temperature for all of 2006 was 3.3 degrees above normal in Reno, the report said.

The average minimum temperature in Reno last summer — the lowest temperatures recorded on a given day, usually at night — was 59 degrees. That was almost 10 degrees above the normal minimum temperature recorded from 1971 to 2000, again the biggest difference noted nationally.

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Servicemen and firefighters were battling to protect the electricity supplies of half a million people last night as the highest flood waters in memory continued to rise.

The Government announced an independent inquiry as water levels in the Thames and the Severn exceeded those of the devastating floods of 1947 and were forecast to rise to 20ft (6m) higher than normal.

More than 10,000 families have been left homeless in the West Country and Thames Valley over the past four days and thousands of others have been told to leave their homes as a mass of water surges down river. Electricity supplies to 50,000 homes have been cut and 150,000 homes have been left without water.

The Times was told last night that the utility companies were warned by the Government seven years ago that they needed to make key facilities flood-proof to protect supplies. The Castlemeads power station near Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire, was shut down yesterday morning, however, leaving more than 50,000 homes without electricity. Supplies to a further 500,000 homes were under threat as a 250-strong force of military personnel and firefighters attempted to prevent rising waters overwhelming the Walham substation.

There was a glimmer of hope last night when the Environment Agency said that the Severn appeared to have peaked two inches below the level that would have overwhelmed the substation. An agency spokesman warned, however, that it was still a “dangerous situation”.

The level of the Thames in Oxford may not peak until early Wednesday. Eight severe flood warnings and 50 other flood warnings remained in place last night as further rain added to the misery. Emergency planning teams met in Cambridgeshire after a flood warning was placed on the Great Ouse and the police prepared for possible floods around St Neots.

Hundreds more troops have been put on standby to help the police and fire services to rescue trapped families and provide humanitarian aid to villages that have been cut off since Friday night. Defence sources said that regional commanders were working at police headquarters in the worst-affected areas and providing troops and equipment whenever requested.

More than 350,000 people in Gloucester were told that they would be left without water after a treatment plant was overwhelmed by the floods. The police were called to guard supplies of bottled water at supermarkets after fights between customers. Severn Trent Water said last night that the households could be without water for up to two weeks.

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Sen. Barbara Boxer is heading north this weekend – way north – to Greenland with a bipartisan delegation of senators to see firsthand the effects of global warming.

Boxer, D-Calif., chairs the Environment and Public Works Committee and hopes to bring a bill to combat climate change to the Senate floor possibly after the August recess. About half a dozen different global warming bills – ranging from those with firm economy-wide emission reduction targets to more narrow measures – have been introduced this year.

The lawmakers actually picked a pretty good time of the year to go: the forecast up there calls for highs in the low 50s.

Boxer and her group will tour the Kangia Ice Fjord, have dinner with the Danish environmental minister, Connie Hedegaard, and take a boat tour of Disko Bay where they will see the world’s largest glaciers.

Accompanying Boxer on the trip will be Democratic senators Barbara Mikulski and Ben Cardin of Maryland, Bill Nelson of Florida, Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island. Republican senators are Johnny Isakson of Georgia and Bob Corker of Tennessee. Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont also will attend. Richard Alley of Penn State University, the lead author on the United States Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will be the scientific advisor on the trip.

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Global warming could trigger hurricanes, or tropical cyclones, over the Mediterranean sea, threatening one of the world’s most densely populated coastal regions, according to European scientists.Hurricanes currently form out in the tropical Atlantic and rarely reach Europe, but a new study shows a 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) rise in average temperatures could set them off in the enclosed Mediterranean in future.

“This is the first study to detect this possibility,” lead researcher Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain, told Reuters on Monday.

“Most models in our study show increasing storm intensity and if you combine this with rising sea levels, as are projected, this could be damaging for many coastal settlements.”

As well as being home to millions, the Mediterranean coast is also a major centre of tourism, which would be under threat.

Factors influencing hurricanes include warm sea surface temperatures and atmospheric instability. In the past, they have been confined to a limited number of regions, such as the north Atlantic and north Pacific, where they are known as typhoons.

Recently, however, they have been forming in unusual places, which Gaertner sees as a clear danger signal.

In 2004, Hurricane Catarina formed in the south Atlantic and hit land in southern Brazil. A year later, Hurricane Vince formed next to the Madeira Islands and became the first to make landfall in Spain.

In a paper published in the American Geophysical Union Journal, Gaertner and colleagues from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, used a range of regional climate models to assess the chance of similar events in the Mediterranean.

They found rising temperatures pointed to increasing storm intensity and, in the case of the most sensitive computer model, a likelihood of strong hurricanes.

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John Edwards has the best approach to fighting climate change of any 2008 Democratic presidential contender, according to an online straw poll of members of the liberal activist group MoveOn.org.

Edwards, a former senator and the 2004 Democratic vice presidential nominee, won more than 33 percent of the 95,284 votes cast in the online survey by MoveOn members.

Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich barely edged out Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois for second place. Kucinich won 15.73 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 15.71 percent and Obama won 15.03 percent.

The survey, which asked MoveOn members which candidate had the best position on dealing with climate change, was taken after a Saturday online forum in which the Democratic candidates staked out their positions.

The event coincided with the global Live Earth concerts designed to highlight the issue.

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Only a few seconds in the icy depths would be enough to kill most mere mortals.

But yesterday, protected by nothing more than a pair of Speedo trunks and his extraordinary central heating, Lewis Pugh took the plunge and became the first man to swim at the North Pole.

The 36-year-old Londoner spent almost 19 minutes at minus 1.8C as he front crawled for a full kilometre – more than half a mile in the coldest water a human has ever swum.

“It was like jumping into a dark black hole,” he said. “The pain was immediate and felt like my body was on fire.

“I was in excruciating pain from beginning to end and I nearly quit on a few occasions. It was without doubt the hardest swim of my life.”

But he said that a colleague ski-ing on pack ice alongside him looking out for hungry polar bears spurred him on.

“I just kept on looking at Jorgen Amundsen ski-ing next to me, encouraging me. I will never ever give up in front of a Norwegian! Let alone a relative of Roald Amundsen (who beat Britain’s Captain Scott to the South Pole.) There is just too much rivalry between our two nations for that.”

Pugh, who gave up his career as a maritime lawyer to become a full-time endurance swimmer, carried out his latest expedition to highlight how global warming has melted the Arctic ice- caps.

He travelled to the geographic North Pole on a Russian icebreaker with a 29- strong back-up team including a mind coach.

To develop his cold sea swimming technique he practised in a pool filled every day with a ton and a half of ice.

He has broken more than 20 endurance swimming records which include the first swim of more than 1km in the Antarctic Ocean.

He has swum the whole of the Thames, been first to swim the length of the world’s longest fjord and first to swim round the most northerly point of Europe.

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After weeks of watching the mercury soar, hardening the already cracked earth of their wilting orchards and farms, a group of farmers on the outskirts of Beijing gather in the Fragrant Hills that line the western fringe of China’s capital city. Unlike their ancestors, they do not assemble to perform a rain dance or gather in a temple to pray to the Lord Buddha to bring the rain.

Instead, they grab rocket launchers and a 37-millimeter anti-aircraft gun and begin shooting into the sky. What they launch are not bullets or missiles but chemical pellets. Their targets are not enemy aggressors but wisps of passing cloud that they aim to “seed” with silver-iodide particles around which moisture can then collect and become heavy enough to fall.

The farmers are part of the biggest rain-making force in the world: China’s Weather Modification Program.

According to Wang Guanghe, director of the Weather Modification Department under the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, each of China’s more than 30 provinces and province-level municipalities today boast a weather-modification base, employing more than 32,000 people, 7,100 anti-aircraft guns, 4,991 special rocket launchers and 30-odd aircraft across the country.

“Ours is the largest artificial weather program in the world in terms of equipment, size and budget,” Wang said, adding that the annual nationwide budget for weather modification is between US$60 million and $90 million.

It is no coincidence that the world’s biggest such project is in China. The country’s leadership has never been cautious about harnessing nature, taking on a slew of what were once thought impossible engineering challenges, such as the Three Gorges dam, the world’s biggest hydroelectric project, and the Qinghai-Tibet Railway, the world’s longest highland railroad.

For a largely agrarian country like China, the weather was thought of as far too important to be left to the whim of gods or nature. As a result, Chinese scientists began researching man-made rain as far back as 1958, using chemicals such as silver iodide or dry ice to facilitate condensation in moisture-laden clouds.

In the beginning, the idea was to ease drought and improve harvests for Chinese farmers, but over the decades other functions have evolved such as firefighting, prevention of hailstorms, and replenishment of river heads and reservoirs. Artificial rain has also been used by some provinces to combat drought and sandstorms. In 2004, Shanghai decided to induce rain simply to lower the temperature during a prolonged heat wave to bring relief to an increasingly hot and sweaty urban populace.

And now China’s weather officials have been charged with another important task: ensuring clear skies for the Summer Olympic Games next year.

Zhang Qiang, the top weather-modification bureaucrat in Beijing, said her office has been conducting experiments in cloud-busting for the past two years in preparation for the Games’ opening ceremony on August 8, 2008.

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Officials at Live Earth Johannesburg have blamed the effects of climate change for poor audience attendance at Saturday’s (07Jul07) South African event.

Organiser John Langford believes extremely cold weather in the region – it snowed last week (ends06Jul07) for the first time in a quarter of a century – kept people away from the concert, which starred Joss Stone, UB40, Angelique Kidjo and Baaba Maal. Speaking before the event, Langford said, “We’re expecting 10,000 here tonight. It’s a bit chilly, and we’ve had a strange winter… is it climate change? We had snow in Jo’burg last week for the first time in 25 years.” But critics have blamed poor publicity for the weak turn-out.